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so at this point the chinese economies just coming out of a 7 7.25% decline. at this point we're looking for the economy to gain momentum in the new year. as a matter of fact, we're looking for gdp numbers of 8% in 2013. >> jing, enjoy the weekend. i hope to see you again very soon. thanks for coming on. >> thank you very much. >> jing all rim ulrich of jpmor >> for those who don't follow it as closely, you've been among the biggest china bears in then tire year. what made you buy the fxi? >> the stock market's been so depressed i thought it could move higher particularly with the new regime coming in and they're talking about stimulating the economy more than i thought they would. still have concerns. what jing didn't mention is that europe is getting worse and part of the reason that china has slowed is because of europe. but nonetheless i didn't want to miss it and turn around in three months and say, you know what? i miss add huge move. i bought the fxi. i'm no longer short on the iron ore stocks. >> apple, that stock has moved even lower than it was earli
so at this point the chinese economies just coming out of a 7 7.25% decline. at this point we're looking for the economy to gain momentum in the new year. as a matter of fact, we're looking for gdp numbers of 8% in 2013. >> jing, enjoy the weekend. i hope to see you again very soon. thanks for coming on. >> thank you very much. >> jing all rim ulrich of jpmor >> for those who don't follow it as closely, you've been among the biggest china bears in then tire year. what...
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Dec 5, 2012
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we're talking about fiscal cliff, and we're forgetting about the weak economy in the uk. there are two things that i'm watching. i'm looking at central banks around the world constituent adding physical gold to their coffers to the opportunity of 400 tons. and a new investor class, the etp, investors holding 2600 tons of gold and the fourth largest holder. so when i start watching, if we start reducing those levels, maybe the top is in. by the way, the dollar is closer to the lows than it is to the highs, so keep an eye on the dollar as well. >> okay. it sounds like it's too early to call in your view. let's look at what goldman is cowling for. they're cutting their 3, 6 and 12-month targets. do you agree with those levels where you see it going long term and short term? >> jackie, you know, the numbers we have to watch right now, i don't know if i necessarily agree with those numbers. but the numbers we're looking at right now are the numbers we have covered on this show a few times. it's 1675 to 1672. that's the big support there. if we get through that, we'll see 1600,
we're talking about fiscal cliff, and we're forgetting about the weak economy in the uk. there are two things that i'm watching. i'm looking at central banks around the world constituent adding physical gold to their coffers to the opportunity of 400 tons. and a new investor class, the etp, investors holding 2600 tons of gold and the fourth largest holder. so when i start watching, if we start reducing those levels, maybe the top is in. by the way, the dollar is closer to the lows than it is to...
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Dec 5, 2012
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this is a deal that needs to happen for the economy to move forward. yeah, maybe an mna transaction giv gives growth to one company and makes profitability better. this is a lot more important than doing an mna transaction. this is about people's lives. frankly, people want answers. i think the time for hiding everything under a rock is sort of like it was yesterday. >> it's not so much hiding it under a rock. it's getting to basic principles. one way the mna process is better is that people agree to it and have a multifaceted communication program. it isn't another debate. it isn't a series of, you know, this is my point of view, and if you don't agree with me, you're wrong and how could you think that way. it's organized, and it's sold. i don't mean improperly. we got the sec. we have the rest of it. it's explained in organized fashion. when you just go out and continually -- this has been an extension of the debates. it hasn't moved the needle at all. hopefully, behind the scenes stuff is going on. although, both sides claim that's not happening. >>
this is a deal that needs to happen for the economy to move forward. yeah, maybe an mna transaction giv gives growth to one company and makes profitability better. this is a lot more important than doing an mna transaction. this is about people's lives. frankly, people want answers. i think the time for hiding everything under a rock is sort of like it was yesterday. >> it's not so much hiding it under a rock. it's getting to basic principles. one way the mna process is better is that...
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Dec 10, 2012
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economy. i think right now, quite frankly, there's nothing but cyclical upside to the u.s. economy. if you look at cyclical components of gdp, things like durable goods consumption, refrigerators, ranges, microwaves, relative, even cars, relative to their share of gpd, historically, we haven't really had a recovery. even though we've technically been in one for three years. to me, only a matter of time. right now, the average age of a consumer durable good is five years. that's the highest since the 1950s. so, to me, it's just really a matter of time. we know that househood balance sheets are improving. really the only drag right now, i think, is this fiscal cliff and the uncertainty around it. >> right. >> and how that's having an effect on household decisions right now. but beyond that, as i said, i said it again and i'll say it again, nothing but cyclical upside to the u.s. economy. >> if you've done -- i don't know if you did a back of the envelope calculation, just bring up consumption of durable goods to the norm, what we've seen it in the past, how much would that be in terms
economy. i think right now, quite frankly, there's nothing but cyclical upside to the u.s. economy. if you look at cyclical components of gdp, things like durable goods consumption, refrigerators, ranges, microwaves, relative, even cars, relative to their share of gpd, historically, we haven't really had a recovery. even though we've technically been in one for three years. to me, only a matter of time. right now, the average age of a consumer durable good is five years. that's the highest...
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Dec 5, 2012
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why would a 200-month tax raise destroy the economy but spending $200 a month on a smartphone somehow doesn't? >> because of the aggregation problem. if you just look at one person it doesn't look so bad. but when you sum it up across 300 million americans and you factor in that 70% of our gdp is consumer spending, in europe it is about 55% so we're more dependent on the consumer for our growth -- then you understand why the congressional budget office -- i don't think they've ever done this before -- is actually predicting a recession if we go over an stay over the cliff. so for any one person, it might not be that big a deal -- although when you think about $2,000 over the course of a year for a family whose median income is about $5,000, that starts to sound like real money, too. but when you aggregate it up, you're really looking at a recession probably if we go over an stay off the cliff, unemployment reverses course, goes up to 9%, really ugly stuff. >> nifk cocole, does the averag american really understand what's going on? how much of this impact do they understand right now?
why would a 200-month tax raise destroy the economy but spending $200 a month on a smartphone somehow doesn't? >> because of the aggregation problem. if you just look at one person it doesn't look so bad. but when you sum it up across 300 million americans and you factor in that 70% of our gdp is consumer spending, in europe it is about 55% so we're more dependent on the consumer for our growth -- then you understand why the congressional budget office -- i don't think they've ever done...
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and then there's the wall street economy. and i must tell you that i had this whole big plan out to give evidence and actually walk you through why i was convinced after last week that this recession call, no matter what happens with the fiscal cliff, is going to happen to 2013. but then i spoke with my greatest source in terms of the overall markets. this is the guy who gave u.s. the heads-up in terms of what's happening with apple when he follows the mutual fund holdings and that turned out to be the absolute best indicator on the top and when it became oversold. so this is what rich said to me, forget about what people are telling you in the real economy. when you manage money it's about what the stock market is thinking. these are the pivotal five reasons why the stock market will go higher into the end of the year and early next year. it's very simple. contra investment sentiment. you can't find anyone bullish on the stock market other than a handful of strategists. bond fund inflows. if we were anywhere near our top of
and then there's the wall street economy. and i must tell you that i had this whole big plan out to give evidence and actually walk you through why i was convinced after last week that this recession call, no matter what happens with the fiscal cliff, is going to happen to 2013. but then i spoke with my greatest source in terms of the overall markets. this is the guy who gave u.s. the heads-up in terms of what's happening with apple when he follows the mutual fund holdings and that turned out...
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Dec 6, 2012
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we need to lift that threat over the economy. and now as part of that, we'd like to put in place as i said a carefully designed mix of reforms to put our fiscal balance in the path of sustainability. as long as there is recognition by the other side that those rates will go up, we think we can reach an agreement on the set of reforms as i said that will be good for the economy. >> republicans were quick to hit back. orrin hatch called them stunning and irresponsible, but there may be more cracks in the ranks. "washington post" reports some moderate and conservative republicans are calling on boehner to concede on taxes now while he still has leverage to ask for something in return likely sbiltsment reforms. larry hathaway joins us for more. wlarry, good to see you. geithner says do no harm but they're prepared to go over the cliff. >> i think it's rather disingenuous. the administration feel it is has wind in its sails from the election and is trying to push the mandate on the issue of mar again al tax rates. i think the risks of
we need to lift that threat over the economy. and now as part of that, we'd like to put in place as i said a carefully designed mix of reforms to put our fiscal balance in the path of sustainability. as long as there is recognition by the other side that those rates will go up, we think we can reach an agreement on the set of reforms as i said that will be good for the economy. >> republicans were quick to hit back. orrin hatch called them stunning and irresponsible, but there may be more...
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economy $1 billion a day. it means lost business for truckers and others who rely on the port for their livelihood. combined they are the nation's busiest handling nearly 40% of impossibles from asia. and google customers across europe will be able to access the largest repertoire of music in the world. the fruit of a collaboration between internet giant and european collecting societies. kelly spoke to the director of strategy resources and asked him how instrumental google was in setting up the licensing platform. >> to facilitate their access and want to offer to every music provider to europe and perhaps the world. so access for all digital partner that have some services in europe. >> we should give you perhaps the task of figuring out the euro zone because you've manned to come together at least with regard to music. how difficult was to overcome those obstacles that those national ob kells that it seemed it held up your counterparts when it comes to trying to figure out for example budget issues? >> tha
economy $1 billion a day. it means lost business for truckers and others who rely on the port for their livelihood. combined they are the nation's busiest handling nearly 40% of impossibles from asia. and google customers across europe will be able to access the largest repertoire of music in the world. the fruit of a collaboration between internet giant and european collecting societies. kelly spoke to the director of strategy resources and asked him how instrumental google was in setting up...
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economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is unfortunately a very big problem on campus today. who are the worst offenders? tonight's premier of "faking the grade -- classroom cheaters," we'll tell you. they'll find out which students are most likely to cut corners in the battle to gain an edge. >> reporter: don mccabe and his canadian colleague collaborate on research. mccabe says in the u.s. business students cheat the most. engineering students are often near the top of the list. and so are communications and journalism students. women studied at one university said they don't cheat when they're in a women-onl
economy? we'll show you some stats to make you go -- hmm. we'll talk more about apple's slide, should microsoft's ceo steve ballmer get the boot if the surface fails. and we will introduce to you quite possibly the world's dumbest demolition crew. it involves a multi-million dollar bore chateau and really bad bulldozing. >> yikes. see you at 1:00, brian. thank you. >>> listen up wall street recruiters, a recent rash of college cheating scandals has shown academic dishonesty is...
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. >> that's because the underlying economy is improving. now you get china. if europe can stabilize, i think we can go much higher. >> how many days, if you add headline that monty was thinking about, going out and bursceloni was thinking about coming back. follow me on twitter. and "power lunch" begins right now. >> halftime is over. "power lunch" and second half of the trading day starts right now. >> and here we are. welcome to "power lunch." as you can see, we are beth here on the floor of the new york stock exchange. and stocks are higher as fiscal cliff song and dance continues in washington. mr. boehner says he is waiting for a proposal from this gentleman, the president. president obama. and the president is set to speak about the cliff and the a economy later today. >> i thought i was supposed to come here today. you thought you were supposed to come here today. so we are both here. not really, folks. a lot of talk today is about what investors should do if we go over the cliff. what should we do if there is a debt deal before year-end or shortly the
. >> that's because the underlying economy is improving. now you get china. if europe can stabilize, i think we can go much higher. >> how many days, if you add headline that monty was thinking about, going out and bursceloni was thinking about coming back. follow me on twitter. and "power lunch" begins right now. >> halftime is over. "power lunch" and second half of the trading day starts right now. >> and here we are. welcome to "power...
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they are keeping the economy growing. i listened to what you just said and i heard similar things for the last 3 1/2 years whether it was dubai and bp oil spill or greece or spain or the deleveraging or foreclosures. any of these things that we're supposed to take us out and yet we keep moving. i think the fiscal cliff is another one of these. >> let me ask you about the timing then. deutsche bank had a note out yesterday where they suggested that central banks have bought us a six months of time on the markets. if pmis do not improve, will we see growth? what would you say to that view? >> i mean, i'm pretty simple on this. i do not believe and we could debate this probably all day that quantitative easing itself has helped the economy at all. banks put that money right back to the fed as excess reserves. it hasn't boosted money in the economy. i don't believe that we've seen a false rally or sugar high. i think the growth in the economy and growth in the markets has been driven by productivity and profits. i think it's
they are keeping the economy growing. i listened to what you just said and i heard similar things for the last 3 1/2 years whether it was dubai and bp oil spill or greece or spain or the deleveraging or foreclosures. any of these things that we're supposed to take us out and yet we keep moving. i think the fiscal cliff is another one of these. >> let me ask you about the timing then. deutsche bank had a note out yesterday where they suggested that central banks have bought us a six months...
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Dec 7, 2012
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but you're right about the economy. the broader economy. because in the aging of the population, and people retiring, the rate of growth in the labor force is going to slow. it already is slowing and the underlying growth rates in the economy are going to be weaker. here's the statistic of the day, the most important. the largest single age group in the country, there are more of these folks than any other age, joe, do you know what that is? do you want to take a guess at it? you may be the largest single age group. how old are you, joe? >> yeah -- >> 55 plus? >> 60 is the new 40, and i'm not 60 yet. i'm not 60 yet. >> time-out! >> tell me. >> it's 53. 53. >> that's around what i am. that's in the ballpark. >> yeah. >> standard deviation. >> so, another ten years from now, you know, we're going to be retiring. i'm actually 53. i represent the largest single age group. >> no, no, that's two words for you. andy rooney, i'm not retiring in ten years. >> okay. all right. >> mike wallace. >> a lot of people will be. a lot of other people will be
but you're right about the economy. the broader economy. because in the aging of the population, and people retiring, the rate of growth in the labor force is going to slow. it already is slowing and the underlying growth rates in the economy are going to be weaker. here's the statistic of the day, the most important. the largest single age group in the country, there are more of these folks than any other age, joe, do you know what that is? do you want to take a guess at it? you may be the...
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Dec 8, 2012
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it's a very anemic economy. let's just let the democrats have their tax hike and we'll be done with it. other than that, jimmy, i don't think this thing gets done. that's what i'm coming around to. >> well, i think that there's a chance to that. a chance for that to happen in the scenario that you just described. but i don't think that is what happens. frankly, i think with the vice president saying today that the issue of whether the top rate is 39.6 or 37 it's really doesn't matter. that was a huge olive branch as our colleague just said. this is a signal, a smoke signal like a vatican smoke signal sent from the administration to speaker boehner today. >> but that's been out there before. >> i understand that. >> there's only a handful of republicans, what are you going to get, a percentage point? mark seimone, boehner went in saying no higher tax rates. we'll give you a cap on the deduction. that's $800 billion in tax revenues. a lot of his own caucus didn't even want to do that. now they'll fiddle around wit
it's a very anemic economy. let's just let the democrats have their tax hike and we'll be done with it. other than that, jimmy, i don't think this thing gets done. that's what i'm coming around to. >> well, i think that there's a chance to that. a chance for that to happen in the scenario that you just described. but i don't think that is what happens. frankly, i think with the vice president saying today that the issue of whether the top rate is 39.6 or 37 it's really doesn't matter....
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what is he saying about jobs and the economy? he'll lay it out for us after the break. >> and would you like van gogh with your morning coffee? maybe you need something more cutting edge. one company is putting the entire art world at your fingertips. we'll introduce you to the ceo of artsy coming up. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you can ask for a name you know. because personal service starts with a real person. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our support teams are nearby, ready to help. it's no wonder so many investors are saying... all ] i'm with scottrade. ♪ you can stay in and like something... ♪ [ car alarm deactivates ] ♪ ...or you can get out there with your family and actually like something. ♪ the lexus december to remember sales event is on, offering some of our best values of the year. this is the pursuit of perfection. offer
what is he saying about jobs and the economy? he'll lay it out for us after the break. >> and would you like van gogh with your morning coffee? maybe you need something more cutting edge. one company is putting the entire art world at your fingertips. we'll introduce you to the ceo of artsy coming up. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, you won't just find us online, you'll also find us in person, with dedicated support teams at over 500 branches nationwide. so when you call or visit, you...
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Dec 4, 2012
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that's why it's great gauge of the economy. so far american consumers are still spending away and he says that you can thank at least in part an improving housing market for that. carl? >> all right. thank you very much, becky. great stuff. thank you for sticking around. >> thank you. >> sticking with the cliff, governors are set to meet with president obama and congressional leaders. the meeting coming one day after the white house rejected a republican plan for averting the cliff. chi chief washington correspondent john harwood is outside of the white house this morning. how do business leaders change the equation? >> reporter: the president is trying to orchestrate a consensus behind his approach to deficit reduction. this is a group part of the national governors association executive committee. a diverse group. he carried three states he represents and governors include scott walker, leader of conservative government reform movement going after public employee pensions and shrink government obligations that way. governors
that's why it's great gauge of the economy. so far american consumers are still spending away and he says that you can thank at least in part an improving housing market for that. carl? >> all right. thank you very much, becky. great stuff. thank you for sticking around. >> thank you. >> sticking with the cliff, governors are set to meet with president obama and congressional leaders. the meeting coming one day after the white house rejected a republican plan for averting the...
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economy is still the driver of the world economy, still the biggest economy. if you're going to look for something to happen, look for consumers to come back and move and get production generated, it's going to be here, not somewhere else. so if the u.s. puts in austerity as you say, then that is going to drag on the economies around the rest of the world. and you're looking at, i think, more concerns, and that could go back to the dollar, surprisingly. >> kevin, why don't we talk about oil prices? we did see oil touch above $90 last week at the end of the week. but it was a very brief move, this morning back down around $88. what's driving things right now? is it geopolitical or more of a story about what's happening in economies around the world? >> merry fiscal cliff-mas to you. you're going to see more bouncing like a yo yo, on the fundamental story, the models we have pointing going into 1q, the reason, it sort of rhymes in the spirit of the season. you have non-opec demand growing, global demand slowing, it's not snowing, and down is where we're going. t
economy is still the driver of the world economy, still the biggest economy. if you're going to look for something to happen, look for consumers to come back and move and get production generated, it's going to be here, not somewhere else. so if the u.s. puts in austerity as you say, then that is going to drag on the economies around the rest of the world. and you're looking at, i think, more concerns, and that could go back to the dollar, surprisingly. >> kevin, why don't we talk about...
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on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i think is a bad idea, that's 30 to $35 billion a year. i heard many democrats say that's a small amount, why shouldn't we do that? that's about halfway to the total amount they're talking about taxes. but whent's that, it's small. but when it's the 70 to $80 billion am toortized over ten years, all of a sudden it's big. i'm not saying don't raise taxes. if i signed the pledge, i would do it for good reasons. i haven't seen a good reason. i haven't seen a plan that promotes the big guy in the room. >> see you in the next hour, rick. rick santelli live in chicago on cnbc. >>> it's tweet time. a new study finds one in three ame
on the economy, i think it's pretty clear that nobody voted for four more years of the current economy. four more years to get his house in order and he's not going to get his house in order using the red herring of taxes when it's entitlemen entitlements. it just isn't going to work, simon. >> i get it. i'm just pointing out -- >> you know what, let's take jobless claims. >> i get it. >> over the last three days, jobless claims to sustain that renewal again which i...
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concerns over the uk economy. so we'll see how investors take to what's probably going to be a loosening up of the budget targets the chancellor set when they came into power. so we'll keep our eyes on that. and at the moment today, more talks in brussels. the greeks now getting their buy back program approved 37 trying to sort out a single supervisor. i think these talks will be fairly tricky because there is a majority who bt with a tant the be supervisor for all the banks. german didn't like that. so those talks will go on longer than originally hoped. but we are marginally higher going to the u.s. open. thank you. >> kelly, thank you. i'll just call you r kelly in now. >> that's not bad. >> ross, thank you. great to see you. >>> when we come back on squawk, bank of america ceo brian moynihan in his own words, we caught up with him yesterday to talk about business, the economy and the looming figure. as we head into a break, bank of america, best performing dow component of the year. up about 77%. ♪ [ male an
concerns over the uk economy. so we'll see how investors take to what's probably going to be a loosening up of the budget targets the chancellor set when they came into power. so we'll keep our eyes on that. and at the moment today, more talks in brussels. the greeks now getting their buy back program approved 37 trying to sort out a single supervisor. i think these talks will be fairly tricky because there is a majority who bt with a tant the be supervisor for all the banks. german didn't like...